This bibliography will generally help you prepare to speak and debate about issues related to the US-China trade conflict.
Specifically, you may want to look for evidence and arguments related to –
Should the US continue its trade pressure
The US should relax its trade pressure against China
A China-US war could escalate to a military conflict
The trade war should be resolved in the following way: [Insert Proposal]
Should the US eliminate tariffs on China’s consumer goods?
Asian markets rally after China soothes nerves (8-29-19). Stocks in Asia rallied on Friday, following Wall Street’s lead. Markets are getting a boost after China gave investors a bit of a reason to be optimistic about trade talks with the United States Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index ( ) climbed 0.8%, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index( ) rose 0.5% South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.7%. Japan’s Nikkei also rose 1.1%.
Trump adds tariffs to nearly all Chinese goods. (8-1-19). President Donald Trump just announced that the US will place tariffs on nearly all Chinese products headed toward America next month — a decision that brings his trade war with Beijing to its most contentious point yet. In a Thursday afternoon Twitter thread, the president said his administration will put a 10 percent tax on $300 billion in Chinese goods starting September 1. That would encompass almost all of the remaining products the US has yet to place tariffs on, effectively meaning there will soon be no free trade between the two countries.
This means that for the first time, Chinese toys, clothing, shoes, and consumer electronicslike iPhones will now face penalties. That will add to the 25 percent tariffs on $250 billionworth of other Chinese products Trump announced in May, and could potentially lead to higher prices for Americans to pay for these goods later this year. The reason for the president’s newest decision, he explained in his tweets, is that the US and China have not yet been able to reach a much sought-after bilateral trade deal. What’s more, the president said, Beijing has not lived up to its promises of buying more American agricultural goods or stopping the export of fentanyl — a drug fueling the opioid crisis — into the US.
As a result, the president felt compelled to punish China further, despite the fact that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping remain friendly. That relationship may explain why the president is still open to more negotiations with Beijing. “We look forward to continuing our positive dialogue with China on a comprehensive Trade Deal, and feel that the future between our two countries will be a very bright one!” he tweeted.
Trump has already won the trade war (2019). American companies are now starting to understand that, deal or no deal, the friction between Washington and Beijing will continue.
A trade war with China is inevitable (5-9-19)
The perfect storm confronting Xi Jinping (2019) Moreover, if Xi is worried about domestic stability, he likely cannot pass along tariff-induced rises in food prices to the consumer (at least not in full). Indeed, given the combination of agricultural threats affecting vegetables, meat, and grains, he may have to substantially subsidize food prices to keep them from rising excessively, even before tariffs are taken into account. This combination is likely a substantial increase in governmental outlays, some of which will have to come from China’s hard currency holdings (e.g., any major purchases of foreign grain or meat).
This does not necessarily mean China will lose the trade war with the United States. Xi is correct that the CCP retains many levers of power and influence to manipulate the population. But neither can Xi be confident that he will emerge triumphant, especially if questions arise within the party about his handling of these various crises.
What to do about China? (6-5-19)
Is China about to give America a bloody nose? (6-5-19). Now Beijing seems to have decided that President Trump and his national security team also need a more tangible warning of where their confrontational approach to China is leading America, and potentially the world. It is signaling dire outcomes on trade, the South China Sea, Taiwan and the old standby threat, North Korea.
The Trade War is Justified (6-5-19). Beijing wasn’t going to liberalize, and Washington needed to push back against unfair practices.
US Pressure Good/Needed
China has reneged on trade commitments
Alex War, August 1, 2019, Vox, Trump announces tariffs on nearly all Chinese goods starting in September
The failure to reach a deal is not all the administration’s fault, though. Multiple outlets reportedthat China had abruptly backed away from huge chunks of a 150-page agreement in May, making changes and reneging on commitments throughout the entire document.
US Pressure Good — Currency
US Pressure Bad — Fails
Expanded free trade zones will help ease economic pressure (2019). At a time when the United States is further closing the door on trade with China, it makes sense for Beijing to improve ties with neighbouring countries. The announcement of six more pilot free trade zones (FTZs) in strategic border regions ensures the widening of reforms and greater opening up. They will be testing grounds for new ideas that, if successful, can be rolled out nationwide
China’s manufacturing job losses are not what they seem. (2019). The assertion that China is suffering from a crisis of employment as a result of the tariffs imposed by the United States is, therefore, not based on the evidence. Employment in broad manufacturing has been falling over the past year, but at a slower pace than in 2014–17, before the tariffs were imposed. China’s exports to the rest of the world are growing enough to more than offset the lost sales to the United States, so employment losses due directly to the trade war seem to be de minimis. Basing trade policy on a bogus premise may be an effective way to sell it to the US public, but it is hardly likely to work with the Chinese.
US Pressure Bad — Currency
How the US-China trade war could impact US-EU negotiations. (2019) Lurking on the horizon is also the notion that the United States might invoke the notion that what some in Washington consider a low value for the Chinese yuan should be a target for US countermeasures. That would be a further escalation. There are already calls for invoking countervailing duties against Chinese products (and those of other nations as well) on the grounds—never before used by the United States or any other country—that a country’s “too low” currency constitutes a subsidy. Doing so would constitute a sharp and unprecedented policy change, one that would deeply disrupt global trading rules and norms and the post-war trading order.
US Pressure Bad — General
Tariffs offset the benefits of the tax cuts
Sylvan Lane, August 1, 2019, The Hill, Gary Cohn Bemoans Dramatic Impact of Trump’s Tariffs
Gary Cohn, former director of the National Economic Council, told the BBC in an interview aired Thursday that Trump’s tariffs have effectively canceled the benefits of his 2017 corporate tax cut and prevented U.S. manufacturers from expansion. “When you build plant equipment, you’re buying steel, you’re buying aluminum, you’re buying imported products and then we put tariffs on those, literally the tax incentive we gave you with one hand was taken away with the other hand,” Cohn told the BBC.
Making Abysmal Growth Attainable (2019). The pause in the US-China trade war wasn’t a refreshing one, and now it appears over. President Trump tweets that he’s placing a 10% tariff on $300 billion of additional Chinese goods. And this one will really hit American consumers. According to Bloomberg, “A draft list of $300 billion worth of targets published by the Trump administration in May included a raft of consumer and technology goods, including most of Apple Inc.’s major products such as the iPhone, along with toys, footwear and clothing.”
And this from Moody’s:
The escalation of trade tensions will increasingly weigh on the global economy and supply chains in an environment of already decelerating growth in the US, the euro area and China. Uncertainty will dampen business investment and trade flows. The imposition of additional 10% US tariffs on the remaining $300 billion imports from China would result in US consumers paying higher prices for everyday items such as electronics, clothing, footware and toys. The tariffs will be credit negative for a number of US sectors, including computers and electronics, manufacturing, and apparel and leather. Potential further broadening of Chinese tariffs could affect US crude oil, transport equipment and semiconductors.”
As negotiators from the U.S. and China prepare for a new round of trade talks in Shanghai this week, it’s a good time for an economic reality check heading into the meetings that begin Tuesday:
- Everyone loses when the world’s two largest economies slap tariffs on each other. The slump to 2.1% growth in second-quarter U.S. GDP unveiled Friday was attributable largely to stalling business investmentdue to trade war-fueled uncertainty. And in China, where growth has slowed to 6.2%, a similar pattern has emerged.
- The fallout is more chronic than acute. In sports terms, the injury is more like a concussion than a blown-out knee. Tariffs sting. But the bigger blows are hits to investment, confidence and growth.
- Washington and Beijing have safety nets in fiscal and monetary policy that will limit both the damage and the incentives for a quick deal. That will be illustrated this week when the Federal Reserve is expected to cut its policy rate. The Fed is simply delivering on its mandate. Yet there is an element of moral hazard at play. Safety nets can be bandages over bad policy decisions. But they also can encourage officials to double-down on them.
- Currencies look like the next battlefield. The biggest economic news to emerge from the White House on Friday were signals that the administration, favoring a weaker dollar, was considering intervening in currency markets and that a chaotic internal debate is underway. Already uncertain financial markets just got a little more confused.
- The frame of reference is shifting as we normalize the pain. China’s state media announced Sunday it had bought “millions” of metric tons of American soybeans since June. Bloomberg reported last week that Chinese buyers are eyeing short-term purchases of 2-3 million tons. Yet that number needs context. Purchases in the first six months of this year were the lowest since at least 2004. In the first half of 2017, China imported soybeans at a rate of 3.2 million tons a month.
- Costs are still rising. The biggest tariff barrage — the U.S. hike of tariffs on some $200 billion in Chinese imports from 10% to 25% — didn’t really take hold until June. So while the initial pain has been inflicted, the swelling is just beginning.
American businesses are coping with President Trump’s extended tariff warwith China by swallowing smaller profits, implementing selective price increases and shifting their Chinese orders to factories in countries such as Vietnam or Mexico. Those strategies have helped blunt the domestic fallout from Trump’s favored trade tool. But tariff burdens that once appeared bearable — either because the financial cost was modest or they were considered a temporary negotiating tool — now are testing businesses’ ability to adjust. “If some of your competitors are not in the U.S. and they’re not subject to this tariff, you’re at an obvious disadvantage in the marketplace and many of your competitors can attempt to take advantage of that,” Paul Manning, chairman and chief executive of Sensient Technologies, told investors July 19. He added: “There are a lot of complications that are associated with tariffs.”
Are tariffs bringing factories and jobs back to the US? (2019). This USA Today article says the answer is no. The tariffs that President Trump has slapped on Chinese imports haven’t sparked the widespread return of manufacturers to the U.S. that Trump envisioned. About 41% of American companies are considering moving factories from China because of the trade war, or have already done so, but fewer than 6% are heading to the U.S., the American Chamber of Commerce in China said in a recent survey. Companies are largely eyeing Southeast Asia and Mexico. Steve Madden, the footwear and handbag maker, shifted its production to Cambodia. GoPro, the mobile camera maker, has its sights on Mexico. Gap, the clothing and accessories retailer, has started up new factories in Indonesia, Vietnam and Bangladesh. Brooks Running, a running shoes and clothes maker, said they’ll move 8,000 jobs from China to Vietnam by the end of the year. The White House was not immediately available for comment. President Trump tweeted this morning “Companies will relocate to U.S.” and “If the Tariffs went to at the higher level, they would all come back, and fast.”
How the US-China trade war could impact US-EU negotiations. (2019) The state of the WTO, in particular, presents very serious concerns. This is the world’s central trading organization. In an all-out and prolonged US-China trade war, with spiraling tariffs, proliferating export restrictions, and tighter curbs on investment, serious questions will arise as to whether various US and Chinese measures comply with WTO rules. There will likely be efforts to politicize the WTO. Both the United States and China will press the WTO to take its position and penalize the other for its actions and will twist arms of other members to support its positions. This would produce deep fissures in an already deeply troubled and weak institution. An all-out US-China trade war could rip the WTO apart, raising concerns about a recurrence of the trade disorder of the 1920s.
The US-China Trade War: Stepping Away from the Brink (2019). Trump’s trade war with China could easily morph into a shooting war.
There is no way to win a trade war with China (2019).Beijing is preparing its people for hardship and explaining the necessity of a protracted national struggle against Washington.
Trump’s Tarrifs threaten the world economy (2019). Seemingly oblivious to the lessons from the collapse of Lehman Brothers during the 2008 financial crisis, Trump appears to think that the US economy is insulated from the rest of the world economy.
For a better and open world, free trade (2019). Trade is good for America. And not just for a wealthy, technologically advanced nation like the United States.
Ignore global economic risks at your peril (2019). As if the risks of a hard-Brexit and of an Italian sovereign debt crisis were not enough, the global economy now has to grapple with the risk of a protracted US-China trade war. It would be irresponsible for US economic policymakers to premise their economic policy decisions on the fortuitous and unlikely outcome that none of these risks will materialize.
US Pressure Bad — Farmers
Trade Tussle: America needs to capitalize on its relationship with Taiwan (2019). Washington should negotiate a free trade agreement with Taipei.